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geopolitical events 2020

Drawing in part on rare access to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs archives, Khan charts the development of Grand strategy under the Communist party from before the founding of the PRC to the present day. Cases of bribery, money laundering, and meddling by foreign officials, including Western ones, are far more pervasive than might be openly admitted. Asia-Pacific: Indonesia’s Confederation of Indonesian Trade Unions (KSPI) has extended its protest campaign, hoping to see the overturn of recent labor reforms. Rigged! iShares international ETFs provide investors with overseas stock and bond exposures, which are as broad as the global market or as targeted as a specific country. Freedman charts the course of the conflict, from its turbulent beginnings of pressure on former President Yanukovych to turn away from Europe, to the failure of the Minsk peace process and how domestic politics developed, both in Ukraine and in Russia. Both books show young Western actors on a fracturing stage, and provide a warning to history against the failure to consider that the hardest part of any campaign begins after you have won. Through the essays, the book looks at the age-old debate of realpolitik vs principle-based foreign policy as its main theme. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. While the UAE has long been exploring Israeli arms purchases, and the two states have cautiously seen each other as potential security partners against a resurgent Iran since at least 2009, we are now witnessing increasing levels of diplomatic openness between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv. We detail the key geopolitical events for the rest of the year in the table below. Couch, a former Navy SEAL and CIA Paramilitary officer has written similar books about the selection process for US Navy SEALs, Army Special Forces, Marine Critical Skills Operators and now the Army Rangers. What often is forgotten are the individuals at the heart of these protests, the men and women whose daily lives are at the forefront of why they choose to demonstrate on the street. Our broad indicator tracking geopolitical risk events was elevated most of the summer and fall before moving lower in the last 30 days (Figure 1). On the other side of the continent, in the coastal states of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo, governments have a more dynamic Islamist threat to consider. To better understand the history and situation of Taipei and Beijing’s relationship, the following are suggested: China’s “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) plan to revive the ancient trade routes of the Silk Road for the modern world continue despite economic uncertainty and debt-trap concerns amongst Beijing’s “partner” nations. While the new “Great Game” has been played out across the Gulf between Saudi Arabia and Iran for many years now, 2019 has seen several moments where the “Cold War” seemed close to turning “Hot”. This material represents an assessment of the market environment as of the date indicated; is subject to change; and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. The following is a report summarizing an event on the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, featuring: Aaron Stein, Director of Research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute; Maia Otarashvili, Deputy Director of the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute; Robert E. Hamilton, Black Sea Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute; … As a renowned scholar in the inter-related fields of law, strategy, and history, Bobbitt’s Terror and Consent is absolutely indispensable in getting to grips with the changing world in which we live at the grand strategic level. Any readers wishing to develop their own understanding of why President Putin acts as he does and the effect of Russia’s historic and geographic legacy will enjoy Giles’ insights. With Brexit bringing the never-quite-went-away spectre of violence in Northern Ireland back into focus, getting to grips with this oft-misunderstood conflict is critical. If you need further information, please feel free to call the Options Industry Council Helpline. Not my first time recommending Stavridis for the end-of-year reading list from possibly the most published Admiral; this work of the former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Dean is an update on the seminal Influence of Seapower Upon History by Alfred Thayer Mahan. It consists of 12 evening lectures given by top-level speakers and experts in the domain of high-level political power-relationships across the world. Disclosure: Purchases made using the links in this article earn referral payments for Encyclopedia Geopolitica. iShares insights help deliver thought leadership and fund insights for your portfolio decisions. Whilst the departure phase of Brexit was originally planned to be resolved by this point, little progress has made compared to our predictions in our 2018 and 2019 reading lists, and as such not much has changed in our list for Brexit-related geopolitics since 2018. Protests against Putin grew in strength this year, and if the government continues to sacrifice the economic well-being of their own people in favour of maintaining their support for the frozen conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk, 2020 may see protests against the government grow once more. As a result, its geopolitical shifts in the year to come will not go unnoticed. These attacks are, by definition, terrifying. His successor will have to grapple with these issues against the backdrop of a country attempting to rebuild itself from the horrors of the Islamic State. Editor’s note: While Dr Rogers is far too humble to put forward his own work for our reading list, his latest work alongside Professor of War Studies Caroline Kennedy-Pipe is due for release in 2020 (following a nail-biting delay for those of us keen to read it!). They did not occur out of nothing but out of geopolitical necessity. For the coming year, understanding the extent of Iranian influence across the region will be key, as will be understanding the inner workings of the Iranian state. Situation Reports - November 22, 2020 Turkish actions in the Eastern Mediterranean have mirrored China’s actions in the South China Sea. Data will become the new oil. U.S. 2020 Elections: Greatest Geopolitical Risk From trade wars and climate change, to U.S. domestic politics, these are the top risks in 2020, according to new research. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding the funds or any issuer or security in particular. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Events Search and Views Navigation. It’s a common question at this time of year, but it’s extremely difficult to answer. While his intent may be to use his life story as anecdotes behind his simple rules to life, it is the stories that are more compelling. Whilst the region lacks the cultural-historical significance of the Levant for the Islamic State movement, the return of thousands of battle-hardened fighters from the Islamic State, and the aftermath of attempts at establishing regional wilayats will likely continue to place strain on local counter-extremism efforts. Generation Kill: Devil Dogs, Ice Man, Captain America, and the New Face of American War (Evan Wright). West Mosul is still in ruins, Sunnis are still disenfranchised, the Kurds are restive, and the collective sacrifices of the Iraqi people will not easily be forgotten. From the outset she is against the war, and joins from her UK-based role in the British Council with the intention of doing working in Iraq for a few short months. © 2020 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. Iraq has far greater issues, in a burgeoning democracy it doesn’t play well to use lethal force against peaceful protests. Evan Wright brings the flair of Rolling Stone to his writing, painting vivid pictures of terrible scenes, difficult decisions, and the dichotomy of terrible leaders, great leaders, and an over-caffeinated driver. For many years the dictators and technocrats there maintained a strong hold on radicalism, but the tide may be beginning to turn. At least a quarter of a million people have been killed or injured by suicide attacks since Tsar Alexander II of Russia was assassinated in arguably the first planned suicidal explosion in 1881. In 2020, the U.S. Presidential election will be mired in innuendo and false narratives … The following are worth reading for an understanding of a potentially significant flashpoint for the coming year: The Middle East and North Africa region has dominated headlines in 2019, as one of the most geopolitically tense theatres, and this is unlikely to change in the coming year. Increasingly, investors are also using ETF options - both to express views and gauge market sentiment ahead of and during political events. The second space race will begin. Taken as a whole, this number is striking, but taken as a yearly average – around 1,800 globally – it could be described as comparatively insignificant. Two Geopolitical Events Investors Need to Stay on Top of in 2020 by Guest Contributor Published 29 January 2020 at 09:50. With Taiwan going to the polls in January, and incumbent president Tsai Ing-wen having staged a strong comeback in the opinion polls in no small part due to her vocal support of the Hong Kong protesters, perhaps Beijing has refrained from taking action that could further perpetuate another four-year headache of DPP rule in Taipei. Sea Power: The History and Geopolitics of the World’s Oceans (James Stavridis). Show Events Search Events Search ... Events for November 2020. Copies of this document may be obtained from your broker, from any exchange on which options are traded or by contacting The Options Clearing Corporation, One North Wacker Dr., Suite 500, Chicago, IL 60606 (1-888-678-4667). Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media (Edward S. Herman & Noam Chomsky). As the title aptly suggests, the book has three main themes. These risks often are heightened for investments in emerging/ developing markets or in concentrations of single countries. Russia is its own entity in the world – neither European nor Asian, neither modern nor ancient. The Bank of Japan events shown are followed by the publication of the central bank’s outlook report. Radical Right-Wing Populist Parties in Western Europe: Into the Mainstream? If this is the case and January’s election does return Tsai Ing-wen to power, China could well decide the damage has been done and take a harder line in dealing with Hong Kong’s dissenters. This information should not be relied upon as a primary basis for an investment decision. Historical events in January 2020. The biggest story in South Asia for 2019 has been Kashmir, which has seen an abrupt change in the status quo, with far reaching implications. The end of 2019 brought subdued geopolitical risk. Alexander Stafford – Chinese Affairs and Defence Analyst, Haunted By Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping (Sulmaan Wasif Khan). We see a younger General Mattis, leading his Marines into battle, and a key character in Generation Kill (Nathaniel Fick) wrote his own book: One Bullet Away, a worthy recommendation that also fleshes out Evan’s book from a more tactical perspective with a dose a of healthy cynicism. Easternisation: War and Peace in the Asian Century, Great Powers, Grand Strategies: The New Game in the South China Sea, The ‘America First’ Endgame: US Financial Warfare, the Coming Global Reset & the Making of Europe, The Chinese Army Today: Tradition and Transformation for the 21st Century, Everything Under the Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape China’s Push for Global Power, The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State, End of an Era: How China’s Authoritarian Revival is Undermining Its Rise, Ethnic Conflict and Protest in Tibet and Xinjiang: Unrest in China’s West, Hong Kong in the Shadow of China: Living with the Leviathan, City of Protest: A Recent History of Dissent in Hong Kong, We Have Been Harmonised: Life in China’s surveillance state, The Trouble with Taiwan: History, the United States and a Rising China, Taiwan’s China Dilemma: Contested Identities and Multiple Interests in Taiwan’s Cross-Strait Economic Policy, Strait Rituals: China, Taiwan, and the United States in the Taiwan Strait Crises, China Strategies in the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s Asian Dream: Empire Building along the New Silk Road, Silk Road 2.0: US Strategy toward China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Negotiating Governance on Non-Traditional Security in Southeast Asia and Beyond, Japan Rearmed: The Politics of Military Power. 2019 saw the final blows of the near-total territorial collapse of the would-be Islamic State Caliphate, including the targeted killing of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi at the hands of US Special Forces in Syria. An understanding of the foundations of this relationship is essential for those wishing to navigate the continuing impact of the rift in 2019. Online (GMT) 20th November 2020. While our annual reading list is divided into geographical and thematic sections (see below), the analyst team at Encyclopedia Geopolitica have also put forward a collection of their personal recommendations to start the list. Encyclopedia Geopolitica readers have access to a 30-day free trial for Kindle Unlimited, allowing them to sample over 1 million ebooks and thousands of audiobooks. Understanding the ambitious OBOR project and its impact on the countries along its route will be key in 2020: As something of a counter to China’s economic and hard-power expansion, the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy was launched as a joint effort in 2017, however, despite a number of progress reports, the concept remains somewhat nebulous and has been criticised as being a thin veil for a China-containment strategy. The following are worth reading for an understanding of a potentially significant flashpoint for the coming year: of the would-be Islamic State Caliphate, including the targeted killing of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi at the hands of US Special Forces in Syria. A stark, well-researched, blow-by-blow account of failed US policies and wars in the Middle East and Southwest Asia, and how these are responsible for the chaos currently gripping large swathes of these regions, the decline of the American Empire, as well as the rise of Donald Trump. The theme of Commerce presents the view of Indians when the country is becoming more aware of its growing economic clout, particularly with its largest neighbour just across the Himalayas too becoming an economic powerhouse. The Mission, The Men, and Me (Pete Blaber). * European Central Bank meetings shown are those accompanied by press conferences. : Who Governs the US? This book discusses Central Asia not as a realm separate from the globalisation and progress of the 21st century, but as one where globalisation has planted its flag most strongly, and is beginning to antagonise the latent forces of radical Islam. Whether the withdrawal will be turned around with a tweet, or if there is a sizeable shift after a change in President remains to be seen. Subscribe . Whether this view is correct or not, the continuing use of SOF has raised their profile and, with a public driven to know more about them, have spawned a genre of books written about or even by Special Operators, with varying degrees of accuracy and quality. The following are the team’s recommendations of regionally-focused books worth reading to get ahead of the major events and geopolitical movements that we anticipate will shape 2020: Europe in 2019 has continued to experience the increasing stresses of demographic changes and immigration; an issue that has been leveraged heavily by the continent’s political right and continues to influence elections and referendums. This will remain more of a realistic concern as the growing insurgency digs deeper into Mali, Mauritania and Chad in the coming year, where it faces embedded French, US and international special forces. Contributor. Keir Giles, senior expert on Russia at Chatham House, sets the landscape for this better grasp with his description of Russian political strategy and doctrine. The theme of Power looks at India’s imagination of soft and hard power, and how it plays a role with its relations vis-a-vis its immediate neighbours. This book presents a more holistic and complete viewpoint, the way India imagines itself and its surroundings. The Targeter: My Life in the CIA, Hunting Terrorists and Challenging the White House (Nada Bakos). Delivering Daily Geopolitical News, Intelligence and Risk-Analysis focusing on Political, Regime, Manufacturing, Macroeconomic, Energy, Climate, technology, Cybercrime, Military and Terrorism matters … He is seen as a legend and mentor amongst the US Military’s officer and enlisted ranks, and as such this is required reading for all seeking to understand the mindset of the US war-fighting machine. With the trade war with China ongoing and an election year ahead, it looks highly unlikely that this year will see any attempts at renewed US leadership in the region. As an independent publication, our writers are volunteers from within the professional geopolitical intelligence community, and referrals like this support our ability to create future content by funding server time and domain fees. Nowhere will the continental changes ahead be tracked more closely than in the corridors of power of the largest economy in the region by far – Brazil. Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor at King’s College London, provides the authoritative account of the conflict that erupted after the EuroMaidan revolution in February 2014. Understanding Israel’s place in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East will likely be highly important in 2020 as these developments continue, and the following are recommended reads: Moving north from the Gulf, the Levant is in a period of consolidation with the ground and air campaigns in Syria, and particularly Iraq, largely over. As the modern centre of global geopolitcal power, the United States of America has continued unsurprisingly to overwhelm geopolitical discourse in 2019. The freshly-re-elected Government in Maputo has bigger fish to fry, meanwhile, as it attempts to nip in the bud a burgeoning splinter movement from former RENAMO rebels in Sofala. Beginning with Mao and the Jiangxi Soviet, when the PRC was more dream than reality, Khan gives a refreshing and balanced account of how China’s actions – confrontational and acquiescent, sometimes opaque but always pragmatic – have achieved their aim in a shifting international and domestic landscape and against a background of constant insecurity.

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