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behavioral foundation macroeconomics

Muellbauer, J (2016), “Macroeconomics and consumption”, CEPR Discussion paper 11588; Oxford University, Department of Economics working paper 811. 0000004688 00000 n a "Behavioral Macroeconomics" in order to explain "Macroeconomic Behav- ... 3 lays the foundations for an alternative explanation by analysing the main assumptions of the New Keynesian model putting particular emphasis on the role of the time horizon, money, and capital accumulation. Alfarano, S, T Lux and F Wagner (2005), “Estimation of agent-based models: The case of an asymmetric herding model”, Computational Economics 26: 19–49. As we increase the degree of flexibility, we move down along the downward sloping segment of the line. Behavioral Foundations for Keynesian Macroeconomics: The Consumption Function Contrary to mainstream top-down models in which agents are capable of understanding the whole picture and use this superior information to determine their optimal plans, the models used in this book are bottom-up models in which all agents experience cognitive limitations. These come close to the observed correlations. 0000004230 00000 n This is also the way structural reforms have been modelled in standard DSGE models (e.g. One issue is the high synchronisation of national business cycles in the industrialised world. 0000003135 00000 n One of the most important is the effect of fairness considerations on wages and employment relationships. 0000002729 00000 n De Grauwe, P (2012) Lectures on Behavioural Macroeconomics, Princeton University Press. The major question we analyse is how structural reforms affect the choices monetary authorities face. In this case, the trade-off is negatively sloped. Akerlof, G and R Shiller (2009) Animal spirits: How human psychology drives the economy and why it matters for global capitalism, Princeton University Press. Why do people buy the stuff they buy? The horizontal axis shows the standard deviations of output; the vertical axis the standard deviations of inflation. This presents the relationship between output and inflation variability that we obtain for increasing levels of flexibility, assuming that the central bank keeps its inflation control constant. 0000005390 00000 n June 2018. This also leads to a two-way causality. This adaptive learning assumption introduced in an otherwise standard New Keynesian macroeconomic model produces endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism (animal spirits) that drive the business cycle in a self-fulfilling way. Therefore, these reforms can be seen as shifting the supply curve to the right, increasing the production potential of countries. Bozio, Garbinti, Goupille-Lebret, Guillot, Piketty, 8 December 2020 - 8 June 2021 / Online seminar / CEPR, 9 - 10 December 2020 / Online / Cornell University, Eichengreen, Avgouleas, Poiares Maduro, Panizza, Portes, Weder di Mauro, Wyplosz, Zettelmeyer, Baldwin, Beck, Bénassy-Quéré, Blanchard, Corsetti, De Grauwe, den Haan, Giavazzi, Gros, Kalemli-Ozcan, Micossi, Papaioannou, Pesenti, Pissarides , Tabellini, Weder di Mauro. However, the results of these models depend on the assumption that the shocks are serially-correlated. 2005, Tesfatsion and Judd 2006, Colander et al. Eggertsson, G, A Ferrero and A Raffo (2014), "Can structural reforms help Europe?" business cycle fluctuations, DSGE models, behavioural macroeconomics, heuristics, adaptive learning, agent-based models, output gap, inflation, animal spirits. Topics:  These deviations from rational calculation are introduced as “non-standard” (the standard being neoclassical economics) or reflections of “bias”. 0000010067 00000 n Behavioral economics is the study of why people make decisions about money, including how they spend, invest, and save. 0000012341 00000 n 0000014848 00000 n The models further help to explain the international transmission of business cycle fluctuations. 0000004164 00000 n Eggertson et al. We need to do better – and that is what we have been trying to do in a series of publications (De Grauwe 2012, De Grauwe and Corrado 2015, De Grauwe and Ji 2016, 2017a). In order to do so, we constructed policy trade-offs of the central bank for different levels of flexibility. This insight allows us to derive this new trade-off by connecting the points that are associated with the same inflation parameter of the Taylor rule. In that case, the central bank can pursue a tighter inflation target without paying a price in terms of a higher output volatility. There is now a significant body of empirical evidence showing that the output gaps (and also the growth of output) in OECD countries do not exhibit a Gaussian distribution, but are characterised by excessive kurtosis and fat tails. 0000002948 00000 n The first is through the sensitivity of inflation to the output gap in the New Keynesian Philips curve (supply equation). "—Domenico Delli Gatti, Journal of Economic Literature "De Grauwe voices the concerns of many macroeconomists regarding the empirical plausibility of the rational expectations assumption. Blanchard, O (2017) “Do DSGE models have a future?” in R Gürkaynak and C Tille (eds), DSGE Models in the Conduct of Policy: Use as Intended, VoxEU ebook. The foundation’s Behavioral Economics program supports research that uses insights and methods from psychology, economics, sociology, political science and other social sciences to examine and improve social and living conditions in the United States. This is provided under the Russell Sage Foundation. �3ȥ�(������g��a��g�� FOUNDATIONS OF BEHAVIORAL FINANCE. We extended our behavioural model to two countries and found that the model is capable of generating a strong international transmission of animal spirits, which in turn leads to a strong correlation of business cycles. 0000003600 00000 n Galí, J (2008), Monetary policy, inflation and the business cycle, Princeton University Press. Behavioral Macroeconomics Via Sparse Dynamic Programming Xavier Gabaix March 16, 2017 Abstract This paper proposes a tractable way to model boundedly rational dynamic programming. This briefing distils many concepts from behavioural economics and psychology down to seven key principles, which highlight the main shortfalls in the neoclassical model of human behaviour. 0000004034 00000 n 0000014164 00000 n Figure 2 The optimal level of flexibility. Delli Gatti, D, C Di Guilmi, E Gaffeo, G Giuloni, M Gallegati and A Palestrini (2005), “A new approach to business fluctuations: Heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility”, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 56: 489-512. This is not so when the economy is too rigid. Application of the models highlights how the trade-off between output and inflation is moderated by the flexibility of the economy. We also found, however, that there is a limit to the comfort flexibility can provide to central bankers. Put differently, as we move down from point A there is an unambiguous increase in welfare. "These Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics remind us that De Grauwe is also an excellent macroeconomic theorist and a wonderful narrator. If you want to take behavioral economics here, you can be admitted even if you do not have major in economics in your undergraduate because it is not required; however, micro and macroeconomic courses are significant. Gigerenzer, G and R Selten (2002), Bounded rationality, Cambridge: MIT Press. Journal of Monetary Economics 61: 2-22. Farmer, R E A (2006), “Animal Spirits”, Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. 0000009677 00000 n Figure 2 allows us to obtain some insights about the optimal level of flexibility. Erster Behavioral Macroeconomics Workshop; BaGBeM Research Workshop "Behavioral Principles of Decision Making in Complex Intertemporal Problems" BaGBeM Research Workshop "Microeconomic Foundations for Classical and Post-Keynesian Economics" BaGBeM Research Workshop "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomic Models" BaGBeM Research Workshop "Structural Vector Autoregressive … I shall begin my review by describing one of my ear- liest attempts in this fi eld, which led to the discovery of the role of asymmetric information in markets. Date: 15.-16. This has to do with the fact that in more flexible economies prices and wages have a greater role to play in adjustments to emerging disequilibria. However, when we go too far with structural reforms, we go beyond the minimum point on the line. 0000001826 00000 n From the liberal arts perspective, this includes the fields of psychology, sociology, anthropology, economics and behavioral economics. 0000008292 00000 n Presently, many macroeconomic models, representing different theories, [4] are derived by aggregating microeconomic models allowing economists to test them with both macroeconomic and … Chapter 4: The Transmission of Shocks . These cannot be easily explained in standard macroeconomic models except by (again) assuming common exogenous shocks. In the spirit of Keynes’ General Theory, behavioral macroeconomists are rebuilding the microfoundations that were sacked by the New Classical economics. For values of b2 exceeding 0.5, these trade-offs become positively sloped – that is, when c1 (the inflation parameter in the Taylor rule) increases, both inflation and output volatility decline. The second way we introduce structural reforms is through changes in the supply equation. Beyond the minimum point further increases in flexibility lead to lower output volatility at the expense of higher inflation volatility. 0000003050 00000 n Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists, Behavioural economics is also useful in macroeconomics, Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji 01 November 2017. Any point on the positively sloped part can be improved upon by increasing flexibility. Just like economics consists of micr oeconomics and macroeconomics, both finance and behavioral finance can be similarly . further increases in flexibility lead to less volatility of output at the expense of increasing inflation volatility). This reduces the amplitude of business cycles, and as a result creates less scope for waves of optimism and pessimism in creating booms and busts. 9.30 – 10.40 David 1: Welcome, Intro, & Methods in Behavioral Economics 11.00 – 12.10 Matthew 1: Normal-Science Behavioral Economics (& Camp Outline) 2.00 – 3.10 Matthew 2: Belief-Based Preferences & Intro to Prospect Theory 3.30 – 4.40 Matthew 3: Reference Dependence and News Utility There are many ways in which one can depart from mainstream macroeconomic models. 0000004895 00000 n G��{̪M)�pج�[s�9��q�^�$s2XN-����^���(��A�M�}���A�5�� ���c��z��;tQ*�}Ut�`��ԉ�����M���1���d��h+N��`p��[o��S�8�$f[��y�W��v� @��7�W��x"�C���A��|�G*�Ӓ�ﶔ�}3i �EW\�_�U1��c��$7����_���"��ƹςc���%�\�t NQ\�2�Q{Q=. 0000001889 00000 n Where the optimum flexibility will be reached then depends on the preferences about inflation versus output volatility. (2008) and Fagiolo et al. 0000009801 00000 n Chapter 3: A Behavioral Macroeconomic Model . 0000011496 00000 n These models find it difficult to explain the fat tails in the distribution of the output gap. For this purpose, laboratory experiments are conducted to investigate effects De Grauwe, P and Y Ji (2017b), “Structural reforms and monetary policies in a behavioural macroeconomic model", CEPR, Discussion Paper no 12336. Evans, G and S Honkapohja (2001), Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics, Princeton University Press. In the spirit of Keynes' General Theory, behavioral macroeconomists Behavioural research explains human behaviour through the lens of social preferences, heuristics and norms, … 0000006190 00000 n 0000004546 00000 n 2011, Gabaix 2014, Westerhoff and Franke 2012, Hommes 2016, Hommes and Lustenhouwer 2016, Muellbauer 2017; see also the recent criticism of Blanchard 2017 and the chapters in Gürkaynak and Tille 2017). (2009) carried out important econometric analysis documenting the non-normality of the distribution of output gaps and growth rates of GDP. wages and prices do not react to changes in the output gap). 2008, Farmer 2006, Farmer and Foley 2009, Gatti et al. 0000010271 00000 n We obtain a non-linear relationship. Behavioural and Post-Keynesian Foundations for a new Macroeconomics Steven Hail A thesis submitted to Flinders University in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Flinders Business School March 2016 . 0000002410 00000 n Behavioural economics is a rather recent field of mainstream economics; it predominantly deals with human behaviour’s deviations from the model of the homo economicus or rational man. Farmer, R, J Doyne and D Foley (2009), “The economy needs agent-based modelling”, Nature 460: 685-686. Hommes, C and J Lustenhouwer (2016), “Managing heterogeneous and unanchored expectations: A monetary policy analysis”, Working Paper, Tinbergen Institute, Rotterdam. 2011, … Darst. Model . This column uses concepts from behavioural economics to develop macroeconomic models with endogenous business cycle fluctuations. We have used our behavioural macroeconomic model to analyse different macroeconomic issues. In an ideal world, defaults, frames, and price anchors would not have any bearing on consumer choices. Booms and busts are all the result of exogenous disturbances (Smets and Wouters 2007, Gali 2008). New eBook: DSGE Models in the Conduct of Policy: Use as intended. It instead has the more modest goal of proposing an empirically sound way of measuring the well-being losses stemming from macroeconomic … A world without the WTO: what’s at stake? These reforms lead to a lowering of mark ups in the goods and labour markets and move the economy closer to perfect competition. The workshop will take place at the University of Bamberg, Germany. 0000007593 00000 n It is not the result of imposing such a feature on the stochastic shocks hitting the economy. In these models, structural reforms in labour markets include relaxing job protection, cuts in unemployment benefits, and so on; in product markets the reforms include reductions in barriers to entry for new firms. Clearly, this must be located to the left of the minimum point of the relationship. Figure 1 Trade-off between output and inflation. Only exogenous disturbances can get these agents off the rail, forcing them to re-optimise. To support rigorous and objective research projects on U.S. economic structure, behavior, and performance whose findings inform and strengthen decision-making by … Nothing in the model creates endogenous business cycle movements. 0000003307 00000 n 0000003773 00000 n The Foundations of Human Behavior Initiative (FHB) aims to drive transformative insights about the psychological, social, economic, political, and biological mechanisms that influence human behavior – and then translate that knowledge into cost-effective, scalable interventions that improve human well-being around the world. As a result, these agents are only capable … This evaluation leads them to switch to the rules that perform best. We introduce structural reforms in the context of this behavioural model through two channels. 0000011518 00000 n Behavioral Foundations for Keynesian Macroeconomics: The Consumption Function Fabio D’Orlando and Eleonora Sanfilippo∗ Preliminary Draft Abstract This paper aims to discuss: (i) the presence of behavioral assumptions in Keynes’s General Theory; and (ii) the possibility of grounding a Keynesian-type consumption function Therefore, during recent decades macroeconomists have attempted to combine microeconomic models of household and business behavior to derive the relationships between macroeconomic variables. There is a growing number of researchers developing ‘agent-based’ models and ‘behavioural’ macroeconomic models (Alfarano et al. The contrast with standard DSGE-models is significant. Smets, F and R Wouters (2007), “Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: A Bayesian DSGE approach”, American Economic Review 97(3): 586–606. Akerlof (2002) Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior Camerer and Loewenstein (2004) Behavioral Economics: Past, Present, Future Crawford (2013) Boundedly Rational versus Optimization-Based Models of Strategic Thinking and Learning in Games Fudenberg (2006) Advancing beyond Advances in behavioral economics This means that if the central bank keeps its inflation control unchanged, increasing flexibility creates a new trade-off, which is negatively sloped – that is, more flexibility then reduces output volatility at the expense of more inflation variability. A low sensitivity of the rate of inflation with respect to the output gap is indicative of wage and price rigidities. De Grauwe, P and Y Ji (2016), “International correlation of business cycles in a behavioural macroeconomic model”, CEPR, Discussion Paper, April. One good example is the recent effort to integrate the financial sector in DSGE models to explain the business cycle. In order to understand this, start from point A. We have chosen to do so by assuming that agents experience cognitive limitations preventing them from having rational expectations. In classical economics, most models assume that consumers behave rationally. 0000004350 00000 n Behavior is always assumed to be rational: given the restrictions imposed by the primi- tives, all actors in the economic models are assumed to maximize their objectives. 0000003490 00000 n Our decisions would be the result of a careful weighing of costs and benefits and informed by existing preferences. De Grauwe, P and Y Ji (2017a) “Inflation targets and the zero lower bound in a behavioural macroeconomic model", Economica, forthcoming. 0000001525 00000 n 2005, Tesfatsion and Judd 2006, Colander et al. 0000003968 00000 n We achieve this without the need to invoke common exogenous shocks (De Grauwe and Ji 2016). Hommes, C (2016), “Behavioural macroeconomics with heterogeneous expectations and interacting agents”, Discussion Paper, CenDEF, University of Amsterdam. The University offers grants to students who will conduct research about behavioral economics. 0000004481 00000 n The seven principles: Other people’s behaviour matters: people do many things by observing others and copying; people are encouraged to continue to do things when they feel other people approve of their b In order to understand Figure 1 let us first concentrate on the case of low flexibility (b2 = 0.1). Instead, these agents use simple forecasting rules (heuristics) and evaluate the forecasting performances of these rules ex post. Therefore, economics is the foundation of behavioral economics. While sharing many theoretical and psychologically based tools with behavioural macroeconomics, our contribution does not have the aim of proposing more empirically robust foundations for macroeconomics or for the business cycle. Fagiolo et al. This feature of the higher moments of the output gap is generated endogenously in the model. Cacciatore, M, R Duval and G Fiori (2012) “Short-term gain or pain? Westerhoff, F and R Franke (2012), “Agent-based models for economic policy design: Two illustrative examples”, Iowa State University, Working Paper No 88. The recent awarding of the Nobel Prize to Richard Thaler testifies that there has been a change of view within the economics profession on the need to allow for departures from the paradigm of the ‘homo economicus’. Gabaix, X (2014), “A sparsity-based model of bounded rationality”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1661–1710. Technically, this means that the distribution of the output gap and output growth is non-Gaussian and exhibits fat tails. We would always make optimal decisions. 0000012210 00000 n These models then lead to the view that business cycle fluctuations occur as a result of exogenous events (shocks) that force individuals to reconsider their optimal plans. 0000003839 00000 n 0000002432 00000 n Such an explanation is not satisfactory, as it shifts the burden of explaining the business cycle to outside forces. That is, optimism (pessimism) leads to an increase (decline) in output, and the increase (decline) in output in term intensifies optimism (pessimism) (De Grauwe 2012, De Grauwe and Ji 2017a). 0000006920 00000 n Gürkaynak, R and C Tille (2017), “DSGE models in the conduct of policy: Use as Intended”, VoxEU. This point is obtained when flexibility is zero (i.e. AKERLOF: BEHAVIORAL MACROECONOMICS In what follows I shall describe how behav-ioral macroeconomists, incorporating realistic assumptions grounded in psychological and so-ciological observation, have produced models that comfortably account for each of these mac-roeconomic phenomena. The trade-offs are represented in Figure 1. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models are still dominant in mainstream macroeconomics, but they are only able to explain business cycle fluctuations as the result of exogenous shocks. Read the latest chapters of Handbook of Behavioral Economics: Applications and Foundations 1 at, Elsevier’s leading platform of peer-reviewed scholarly literature Paul De Grauwe recently wrote a textbook on Behavioral Macroeconomics. In particular, in a more flexible economy (more wage and price flexibility), the power of animal spirits is reduced and so is the potential for booms and busts in the economy. 0000007571 00000 n This trade-off disappears when the economy is sufficiently flexible. Tesfatsion, L and K L Judd (2006), Handbook of Computational Economics Volume 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics, Elsevier. This is much less the case in mainstream macroeconomics, however. 0000008314 00000 n relates to the decision-making process behind an economic outcome of individuals and institutions They have to rely on large exogenous shocks as explanations of the boom and bust features of business cycles. The latter is measured by the sensitivity of inflation to the output gap in the New Keynesian Philips curve (called b2). Thus, one can conclude that when the economy is very rigid, a central bank that pursues its inflation target with increasing intensity faces a classical negatively sloped trade-off between inflation and output volatility. Starting from the top of that trade-off, we see that increasing the inflation control (measured by the inflation parameter c1 in the Taylor rule) leads to a decline of inflation volatility at the expense of more output volatility. 0000013738 00000 n 0000006212 00000 n (DE-101)1001494865: Material Type: Document, Thesis/dissertation, Internet resource: Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File: All Authors / Contributors: Johannes Kaiser. The agent uses an endogenously simpli ed, or \sparse," model of the world and the conse-quences of his actions and acts according to a behavioral Bellman equation. Why central bankers favour monetary policy inertia, Animal spirits and the optimal level of the inflation target, DSGE Models in the Conduct of Policy: Use as Intended, “International correlation of business cycles in a behavioural macroeconomic model, Structural reforms and monetary policies in a behavioural macroeconomic model, DSGE models in the conduct of policy: Use as Intended, Revitalising multilateralism: A new eBook, CEPR Advanced Forum in Financial Economics, 7th Empirical Management Conference – Virtual Edition, PEDL 2020 Conference on Firms in Low-income Countries, CEPR Household Finance Seminar Series - 12, Homeownership of immigrants in France: selection effects related to international migration flows, Climate Change and Long-Run Discount Rates: Evidence from Real Estate, The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations, Demographics and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis in Europe, QE and the Bank Lending Channel in the United Kingdom, Independent report on the Greek official debt, Rebooting the Eurozone: Step 1 – Agreeing a Crisis narrative. Chapter 2: The Scientific Foundation of the New Keynesian Macroeconomic . Nothing really can go wrong in models populated by supreme agents peacefully optimising and endowed with great cognitive abilities that allow them to understand the complexities of the world. Towards a behavioural foundation of macroeconomics XX, 228 S., graph. 0000006898 00000 n 0000003242 00000 n Simon, H (1957), "A behavioural model of rational choice", in Models of Man, Social and Rational: Mathematical Essays on Rational Human Behavior in a Social Setting, New York: Wiley. 0000003666 00000 n 0000008991 00000 n We conclude that the degree of flexibility has profound effects on the trade-offs central banks encounter in their attempts to stabilise the economy. This may lead to the conclusion that flexibility is always welfare improving – but that is not the case. 2014, Cacciatore et al. F��7��a�ަ�O!r�DL]��N(�K(�HM���F���ׄ�E10�V�N" (q�G�'P�RM\���tS�#Q� ��DT˘��&� xA�jJ�����a8�$���ɉY+O���N��L���#(/�R�ش���gܒ�B3@�]3Lí+�yާ�F3�껁o��W��*��ط�sN`͡ާ,���X�]4�x�E��b�7\�HY���Q_;d� endstream endobj 145 0 obj 420 endobj 92 0 obj << /Type /Page /Parent 81 0 R /Resources 114 0 R /Contents [ 121 0 R 123 0 R 125 0 R 127 0 R 129 0 R 135 0 R 137 0 R 143 0 R ] /MediaBox [ 0 0 506 723 ] /CropBox [ 0 0 506 723 ] /Rotate 0 >> endobj 93 0 obj << /Count 10 /Type /Outlines /First 94 0 R /Last 94 0 R >> endobj 94 0 obj << /Title (��n�پ��\\8v�$��~�!���2M����:����҇\n�[y$�,F�) /Parent 93 0 R /A 95 0 R /First 96 0 R /Last 97 0 R /Count 9 >> endobj 95 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D [ 92 0 R /XYZ 0 656 null ] >> endobj 96 0 obj << /Title (�j_�zY5�ml�GJm�П��r��ը) /Parent 94 0 R /A 113 0 R /Next 110 0 R >> endobj 97 0 obj << /Title (��>�ꓪ�) /Parent 94 0 R /Prev 98 0 R /A 99 0 R >> endobj 98 0 obj << /Title (!���=B��@�4��hp) /Parent 94 0 R /Prev 100 0 R /Next 97 0 R /A 101 0 R >> endobj 99 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D [ 49 0 R /XYZ 0 367 null ] >> endobj 100 0 obj << /Title (��:좊�ܚè����U��ZZ�Y��) /Parent 94 0 R /Prev 102 0 R /Next 98 0 R /A 103 0 R >> endobj 101 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D [ 46 0 R /XYZ 0 301 null ] >> endobj 102 0 obj << /Title (n���o��Q�q�9) /Parent 94 0 R /Prev 104 0 R /Next 100 0 R /A 105 0 R >> endobj 103 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D [ 43 0 R /XYZ 0 653 null ] >> endobj 104 0 obj << /Title (����H���+��R) /Parent 94 0 R /Prev 106 0 R /Next 102 0 R /A 107 0 R >> endobj 105 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D [ 37 0 R /XYZ 0 554 null ] >> endobj 106 0 obj << /Title (��r���E��k�'YAɌO$��"� ��f*���*Z�;) /Parent 94 0 R /Prev 108 0 R /Next 104 0 R /A 109 0 R >> endobj 107 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D [ 31 0 R /XYZ 0 543 null ] >> endobj 108 0 obj << /Title (mzJ˶��e�{7"?-&0�׎�v^Qda���AD��a) /Parent 94 0 R /Prev 110 0 R /Next 106 0 R /A 111 0 R >> endobj 109 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D [ 19 0 R /XYZ 0 653 null ] >> endobj 110 0 obj << /Title (C��H�a�%�^h���`G}t�� 㑈��M) /Parent 94 0 R /Prev 96 0 R /Next 108 0 R /A 112 0 R >> endobj 111 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D [ 13 0 R /XYZ 0 444 null ] >> endobj 112 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D [ 7 0 R /XYZ 0 510 null ] >> endobj 113 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D [ 4 0 R /XYZ 0 499 null ] >> endobj 114 0 obj << /ProcSet [ /PDF /Text ] /Font << /F1 119 0 R /F5 115 0 R /F6 116 0 R /F7 133 0 R >> /ExtGState << /GS1 139 0 R >> >> endobj 115 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /Type1 /Encoding 117 0 R /BaseFont /Times-Roman >> endobj 116 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /Type1 /Encoding /MacRomanEncoding /BaseFont /Times-Italic >> endobj 117 0 obj << /Type /Encoding /BaseEncoding /WinAnsiEncoding /Differences [ 17 /Zcaron /zcaron /Lslash /lslash /minus /fraction /breve /caron /dotlessi /dotaccent /hungarumlaut /ogonek /ring /fi /fl ] >> endobj 118 0 obj << /Type /FontDescriptor /Ascent 714 /CapHeight 714 /Descent -198 /Flags 32 /FontBBox [ -166 -214 1076 952 ] /FontName /BAGDCN+HelveticaNeue-Roman /ItalicAngle 0 /StemV 85 /XHeight 517 /CharSet (4���[3�Ƽ��m�΅�O�ب��t�}�) /FontFile3 140 0 R >> endobj 119 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /Type1 /FirstChar 32 /LastChar 181 /Widths [ 278 259 426 556 556 1000 630 278 259 259 352 600 278 389 278 333 556 556 556 556 556 556 556 556 556 556 278 278 600 600 600 556 800 648 685 722 704 611 574 759 722 259 519 667 556 871 722 760 648 760 685 648 574 722 611 926 611 648 611 259 333 259 600 500 222 537 593 537 593 537 296 574 556 222 222 519 222 853 556 574 593 593 333 500 315 556 500 758 518 500 480 333 222 333 600 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 556 556 278 278 278 278 278 800 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 600 278 278 278 556 ] /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding /BaseFont /BAGDCN+HelveticaNeue-Roman /FontDescriptor 118 0 R >> endobj 120 0 obj 606 endobj 121 0 obj << /Filter /FlateDecode /Length 120 0 R >> stream In the 1976 book The Economic Approach to Human Behavior, the economist Gary S. Becker famously outlined a number of ideas known as the pillars of so-called ‘rational c… 0000005111 00000 n In these models, individual agents maximise an infinite horizon utility function using rational forecasts based on all available information including the information embedded in the model.

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